HIV Estimates and Projections

Every year, UNAIDS works with in-country teams to produce what are known as “HIV estimates”. These are modelled estimates of the impact of the programme on the HIV epidemic in the country and they fill an important information gap in impact measurement in the HIV response. Generated in the AIDS Impact Module of the Spectrum (a suite of modelling tools), the estimates principally rely on demographic statistics, programme data, surveillance information as well as population-based survey data. Among the estimates captured are number of annual and cumulative AIDS deaths; number of new HIV infections; HIV prevalence, number of new infections averted by ART, and other parameters. The AIDS Impact Module also helps make projections of the future trajectory of the HIV and AIDS epidemic.